Impending Conflict in West Africa: ECOWAS’ Response to Niger’s Crisis
Thousands gathered at the main stadium in Niamey, Niger to support the military coup, ahead of the deadline for junta to step down. #ECOWAS threatened military action if ousted President Mohamed Bazoum was not reinstated although that's not supported by all its members.
A sense of anticipation permeated Niger on Monday as the deadline set by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the coup leaders to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and restore constitutional order came to a close. Meanwhile, the newly established military council in Niger announced the temporary closure of the country’s airspace.
The leaders behind the coup in Niger have shown defiance towards ECOWAS’ demands, risking the potential of military intervention that ECOWAS threatened on July 29, adopting a stern stance against the coup. In a recent press release, the President of PAP, His Excellency Chief Fortune Zephania Charumbira, expressed commendation for the swift and resolute response of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) to the brazen coup d’état that shook the Republic of Niger.
However, in spite of condemnation by regional and international players, such as the Pan-African Parliament, African Union, European Union, as well as the United States, Nigerien coup leaders have remained unyielding in the face of demands for restoration of constitutional order. On Sunday, thousands of Nigerien citizens gathered at the main stadium in Niamey, in a display of solidarity with the military coup ahead of the deadline for junta to step down.
Divisions and Caution
With the expiration of the deadline and the closure of Niger’s airspace, attention turns to the next steps for the group. A major division within ECOWAS looms over the issue of military intervention and the use of force against Niamey. Nigeria, the current ECOWAS presidency holder, remains reluctant to engage in military intervention.
On Tuesday, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu reportedly faced a huge backlash at home over his threat to use military force to reverse the coup next-door. It is reported that there’s was strong opposition to military intervention at a session of the upper chamber of parliament, and the Senate. The Nigerian parliament, which requires approval for forces’ involvement in operations beyond borders, has called upon the government to prioritize political and diplomatic solutions and view military action as a last resort.
Algeria, too, has rejected the notion of military intervention in Niger. A delegation from the country conveyed its refusal to employ force in Niger. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune asserted in a televised interview that military intervention “will not solve any problem, but will exacerbate matters,” questioning the state of countries that have experienced military intervention.
Jointly, Mali and Burkina Faso have issued a warning against any attempts at military intervention aimed at reinstating the Bazoum regime in Niger. They view such intervention as tantamount to a “declaration of war” against them.
Support for the Coup Leaders
The coup leaders in Niger have garnered support from their military counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso, both of whom seized power through coups in 2020 and 2022, respectively. The Mali army has announced plans for a joint official delegation from Bamako and Ouagadougou to visit Niamey as a show of solidarity with Niger. This comes amidst threats of military intervention from “ECOWAS” member countries.
Colonel Abdallah Maiga, a key figure within the Malian Military Council, revealed that Burkina Faso and Mali are preparing to send a delegation to Niamey, led by a Malian minister. The delegation’s purpose is to demonstrate solidarity with the people of Niger, seen as their brethren.
ECOWAS Conflict’s Gravity
An analysis featured in “Foreign Policy” magazine underscores the Niger coup as West Africa’s most pressing challenge. The magazine posits that the expiration of ECOWAS’ deadline could serve as the catalyst for war in the region.
The magazine highlights the perils of the Niger coup, including a deep-seated division among ECOWAS member countries. Countries like Mali and Burkina Faso view intervention as an act of war due to shared anti-French sentiments stemming from their colonial pasts. These nations face similar crises and are governed by military regimes following recent coups.
ECOWAS, established in 1975, initially lacked the capacity to deploy forces or interfere in the political affairs of its member states. This changed in 1990 during the Liberian civil war when it deployed peacekeeping forces. Since then, ECOWAS has intervened in Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, and Gambia, with varying degrees of success in maintaining peace.
The magazine observes that Niger boasts a formidable military and, consequently, any military intervention would likely result in civilian casualties and the potential for regional conflict escalation. This marks the first instance of such a division among ECOWAS member states.
It goes on to highlight that ECOWAS’ intervention, if executed, could exacerbate internal divisions and economic challenges resulting from the war. Additionally, the support for a president without local legitimacy, who embroiled the nation in a military conflict, would pose a significant crisis for the group.
